Kyiv's provocations will be rebuffed
Ukrainian intelligence announced the transfer of Russian tanks and ammunition to the territory of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. The expert suggested that the drawdown of the armed forces may be related to Russia's plan to recognize the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR.
Photo: dan- news.info.
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, since the beginning of January, several units of tanks, self-propelled artillery mounts, as well as ammunition have been removed from the territory of Russia to the unrecognized republics. Military equipment was delivered by rail and road.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview with The Washington Post, suggested that Moscow plans to intensify the escalation of the conflict in territories where “historically inhabited by people” who have family ties to Russia. For example, under the guise of protecting the Russian-speaking population, Moscow can take control of Kharkov.
Eduard Basurin, a representative of the People's Militia of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, made similar claims to the Ukrainian side. According to him, Kiev deployed eight Smerch and Uragan multiple launch rocket systems to Donbass.
Political scientist Sergei Markov, in a conversation with MK, assessed the likelihood of large-scale hostilities:
– Do not forget that there is a psychological war, and both sides can either openly lie or tell half-truths. Nobody can be trusted. But, if this information is true, then there may be several scenarios.
Firstly, if Russia recognizes the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, then troops on the border are necessary so that the Kiev regime does not gave the order to go on the offensive.
The second option: the Kiev authorities will give the order to the Armed Forces of Ukraine to go on the offensive. Then Russia will respond to these actions, and this time it will not stop only at defense.
– Do you think Russia can recognize the DPR and LPR as independent states?
– The likelihood of this, in my opinion , is equal to 85%.
– What sanctions against Russia may follow from this decision?
– There will be no large sanctions. Biden has already stated that if there is a small invasion, then there will be no response from them. And if it is big, then there will be an answer. That is, it can be interpreted as follows: Donbass – take away, but you can’t enter Kharkov, Odessa, the Black Sea region.
– Why do you think that Russia will recognize the self-proclaimed republics after eight years?
– Russia feels back to the wall. There were many agreements, and it constantly turned out to be a deception on the part of the Ukrainian side. I think Moscow is counting on Biden not acting like Trump, who was ready for drastic measures. In addition, now is such a moment that Russia has an advantage over the United States in the field of nuclear missile weapons.